Since the publication of my scathing statistical analysis of the Seattle Mariners, yes, scathing, I've done some deeper research into sabermetrics, specifically the Runs-Created Approach, and discovered a fatal flaw with the initial findings (good eye, Hickey): It doesn't take outs into account.
Luckily for me, Bill James, the sabermetrics wizard who created the formulas ("You shall not pass!"), saw that gap himself and developed a way to calculate the total number of outs a player has used in a season. Outs are probably the most important statistic in baseball because they're absolute. There are 27 outs per regular nine-inning game no matter what. You can't have 28 outs in a nine-inning game, trust me, the Mariners have tried, and that means it's critical for players to contribute the least-amount of outs they can to a game in order to sustain the possibility for more runs to be scored.
By calculating the number of outs a player has used, even run-scoring outs like a sacrifice, ground-into-double-play, or caught stealing, you're effectively closing the bridge that would, in effect, give a player who simply had more official at bats a better chance of creating more runs (remember, scoring runs and creating runs are two different things). And that'd be unfair, wouldn't it?
Think about it like this: If a player had 200 walks in a season, he'd have 200-less official at bats than a player who had zero walks that same season. Getting 200 walks shouldn't be counted against a player who happens to have a good eye, because that player may "create" more runs from those 200 walks than a player who had zero walks but 200 more outs. So to combat that error, Game Outs Used needs to be calculated and then compared against the total number of Runs-Created.
Check out this formula for Game Outs Used:
So I built that badass formula and then took Runs-Created, divided it by Game Outs Used, and then divided that by 26.72 (which is the total number of game outs available in a game, taking into account the .018 approximate number of errors per 27 outs in a Major League Baseball game). What I ended up with is the real sabermetric look at the offensive contributions of the 2010 Seattle Mariners based on runs-created per game.
Let's just say the findings were a bit ... surprising.
|Seattle Mariners||Runs-Created||Game outs used||Runs-Created/Game|
|Ken Griffey, Jr.||5.05||82.236||1.64|
Eliezer Alfonzo, come on down! You're the best sabermetric hitter on the Seattle Mariners!
Third-string catcher behind Rob Johnson and Adam Moore.